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Secret Agent. If the BB with 41BBs folds preflop the next hand, this player becomes the de facto chip leader. They can bully the other players safely in the knowledge they cannot themselves be eliminated.

But this player risks elimination whenever they are in a pot with the chip leader. Tangling with the chip leader is very risky for the 2nd chip leader, as such their Bubble Factor is 2.

The overall chip leader also has a high Bubble Factor against 2nd in chips. But the chip leader has a much lower risk premium against the other mid and shortstacks. At the other end of the spectrum the short stack, UTG1 with 9BBs, has a low Bubble Factor between 1.

There is not much difference between the Bubble Factors, which makes sense because losing results in the same outcome each time, elimination. The Bubble Factor against them is 1.

It is a minor difference but it is worth briefly exploring why this is. There is more upside to winning an all-in battle against the second shortest stack.

If the CO loses this hand, they become a micro stack and are very close to elimination. UTG1 will have over 18BBs and, crucially, will likely be able to ladder to at least one more payout.

Doubling up against the chip leader is not as beneficial by comparison. The key lesson from Bubble Factor is how to develop an understanding of who to avoid and who to target for aggression at your table.

Bubble Factor is most accurately used to calculate the equity required to call an all-in bet. You can apply it to post flop but it becomes very complicated.

Rather than do that, use it as a measure for how scared your opponents should be of you and how scared you should be of them. This applies to your pre and postflop strategy. It is not the best use of mental resources to try and calculate Bubble Factor on the fly at the tables or even away from them in your study.

It is much easier and productive to explore the Bubble Factor feature on GTO Wizard to develop a solid understanding of what Bubble Factor is and what factors impact it. Play around with Bubble Factor on GTO Wizard.

Compare different stack size match-ups, different stages of the tournament and different payout structures. You will soon develop patterns about where to apply ICM pressure and when to adopt a survival strategy.

GTO Wizard the 1 App for Poker players. Barry Carter has been a poker writer for 16 years. He is the co-author of six poker books, including The Mental Game of Poker , Endgame Poker Strategy: The ICM Book , and GTO Poker Simplified.

Targeting has long been a staple of exploitative poker thinking. Before the advent of solvers, open-limping was considered the province of passive, gambley recreational players…. Tournament poker is about precision. Cash games, where stacks typically run into the hundreds of….

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Three-bet pots are scary. Playing out of position is scary. Monotone flops tend to provoke great anxiety among poker players. In this series, we have looked at factors that can influence ranges in otherwise identical…. Last time we discussed the ICM considerations in game selection, we looked at field size,….

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Skip to content. What is the Bubble Factor in poker tournaments? However, we have a solution in the form of Bubble Factors , which allows us to make informed decisions during every stage of the tournament Bubble Factor measures ICM pressure in poker.

What is Bubble Factor? Bubble Factor example. In this example that would be:. What influences Bubble Factor?

The payout structure The stage of the tournament The stacks. Payout structure. Stage of the tournament The stage of the tournament is the next factor. Chip stacks The final thing that influences Bubble Factor and perhaps the most important area to study is the distribution of chip stacks at your table.

Broadly speaking:. Chip leaders have low Bubble Factors. This makes intuitive sense, they are at the least risk of elimination so they can call all-ins much more liberally. Short stacks also tend to have lower Bubble Factors.

Medium stacks have the highest Bubble Factors , for them it would be a disaster to bust out ahead of a bunch of short stacks, so they have to play very tight.

These are the Bubble Factors for every player match-up at the table:. Chip Leader The overall chip leader also has a high Bubble Factor against 2nd in chips. Short stack At the other end of the spectrum the short stack, UTG1 with 9BBs, has a low Bubble Factor between 1.

How does Bubble Factor affect strategy? As a big stack the best players to bully are the medium stacks who have everything to lose and little to gain by tackling you. You should avoid the other big stacks, you need a very strong hand to take them on.

You should also expect the short stacks to defend themselves more against you, because they need to take a stand soon. As a medium stack you should avoid the big stacks and the medium stacks, but target the shorter stacks a little.

Short stacks should play looser but also target other short stacks. You can exert some ICM pressure on the other short stacks and the upside of winning an all-in pot against them is greater.

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